First Home Buyers

Regardless, people need somewhere to live, and unsurprisingly, more people are choosing Byron and the Northern Rivers.  The first-home buyer market remains the hottest market nationwide. Partly because the federal government introduced the First Home Buyer Incentive Scheme, the entry-level market nationwide has accelerated, putting more money in sellers’ hands. It does not significantly affect the Byron Shire market, as it is capped at $800,000 in NSW. It would be an interesting brief for me to find a standalone house in Byron Shire that would be eligible for this government subsidy, but it may still be an option in other shires in the Northern Rivers.

The Bank of Mum and Dad is more of a player in the Byron Shire than the first-home buyer scheme. Depending on the statistic used, it is either the fifth- or ninth-largest lending institution in the country. Housing affordability remains a serious issue, no matter how you cut it, and this further exacerbates inequality. The federal government’s rollout of yet another incentive scheme is effectively an acknowledgment that it has no feasible short-term policy to address the housing issue.

Top End

The top-end market, exceeding $5 million, warrants closer examination. Buyers for luxury property are out there, but not as prevalent as most people think. Byron Bay is high clickbait for online scrollers, and when coupled with a minor celebrity or business leader, the sale will attract media attention. Mea Culpa, as my Hot Property articles often play into this, so I am at fault as well.

When you look at the stats and talk to listing agents, the demand for top-end is much quieter than the media suggests. Yes, there have been a few sales of over $20 million, and the pics for these make for great property porn, but these are more outliers rather than the norm. Sales in the ten-to-twenty bracket are not vibrant as there are far more sellers than buyers in this sector.

Vendors in the high-end market face two problems. Yes, agreed, having trouble selling a $10 million property is undoubtedly a first-world problem. But it may well be that selling a large luxury acreage away from the coast faces two drawbacks. Baby-boomer treechangers have now reached an age where managing and maintaining these large acreages is no longer fun. They should be selling to younger, cashed-up families, but it seems this cohort does not want to spend much time in cars ferrying kids around or on a ride-on mower. Closer to the coast or a town centre is their preference.

Middle Market

Sales in the middle market are steady and undramatic. We have seen some price growth in median-priced properties, but this growth is tempered by a strong supply of new product.

As of December 2025, Byron Bay’s median price reached $2,454,099, up 4.45% over the past 12 months. Mullumbimby recorded a median of $1,120,000, up 9.6%, and Ocean Shores sat at $1,380,000, up 9.3%. These figures indicate a market that is more resilient than that in most other regions.

The graph above shows the trend line for median house prices in Byron Bay (2481) only. The median house price has a lag and will soon show the slight uplift previously mentioned.

To Go or To Wait?

A common question for agents and property professionals is: Is now a good time to go to market, or to enter the market as a buyer?  Occasionally, it is tempting to read the tea leaves and try to predict a market trend. Looking at the chart above, the most likely outcome is that the median trend line will plateau and remain stable for a while.

However, it is generally not advisable to predict a market’s future, as there are always too many variables.  Anything could happen with interest rates, consumer sentiment or global influences. Buyers and prospective sellers are always best to follow their hearts and choose lifestyle reasons over investment or capital-gain considerations. Life is short – do what suits your soul, and the economics will usually take care of itself.

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Yes, springtime is often the season when we have more listings and more buyers searching. Families who are moving want to have the kids settled in a school by January. We have had three interest rate cuts, placing us in a downward rate cycle. However, today’s announcement by the RBA will be a “Hold”.

Additionally, there is the federal government’s 5% deposit First Home Owner Support Scheme.  These schemes are window dressing for a government to appear as though it is taking action. They do help a few people (approximately 10,000 per year), however in reality, they do the opposite of what is required – increasing the median price of entry-level property, making it harder for many others to get in.

National Trend

I have no memory of a market turning so quickly from lukewarm to strong in such a short amount of time. All eight capital cities recorded strong quarterly growth this September. Brisbane and Canberra are now number 2 and 3 on the median house price ladder. Melbourne is not in decline; instead, it is taking the right approach by building more density, which manages to temper price rises.

Sydney’s median house price is now $1,750,000, an increase of 3.4% this quarter alone, and the fastest quarterly growth in two years. Byron Bay 2481 is now at just over $2 million and has had a higher median price than Greater Sydney since 2018. Of course, many individual Sydney postcodes have a higher median price than Byron Bay. Bellevue Hill is now the highest at over $10 million, and Palm Beach is over $5 million.

Globally, only Hong Kong has higher property prices than Sydney. This is nothing to be happy about, especially after viewing this viral video of people lining up to view a rental in Sydney. One could expect the trend line in the graphic below to show a levelling, and/or an upswing if supply remains tight.

Fewer listings, more demand

Unfortunately, I am unable to measure the number of listings shire-wide, only by postcode. It seems that there are fewer listings in Byron Bay 2481 than in the same period last year and 2023. 43 now, 66 last year, and 77 in 2023. Both Mullumbimby and Ocean Shores currently have more listings than they did last year, and Bangalow remains steady.

If supply is tight and listings are scarce, the market shifts from a buyer’s market (where there are more sellers than buyers) to a seller’s market (where there are more buyers than sellers). Then we will see FOMO,  where the fear of missing out prompts people to pay more, creating a domino effect. We will quickly see prices increase if supply is tight and there is a shortage of listings.

Predicting the curve

As they say, the best time to plant a tree is yesterday. Maybe the time to buy in Byron Shire is tomorrow. We may be at the bottom of the S-curve and emerging from a soft market. I do not see a surge of stock coming to listing, and pundits are saying the share market is in bubble territory. We may be entering a robust property market in the whole shire.

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What’s The Buzz?

We are now at an interesting moment in the property cycle. The question many are asking is, are we at 7 PM on the clock – the start of Recovery and past the Bottom? Are we about to see a market bounce? Interest rates are on the way down. The federal election is done and dusted. People have been distracted by many things for a while, and are we back to normal?

We need to take a step back and review recent activity. There was a massive jump in prices during the COVID lockdowns, as many people sought to escape cities and work from home. This saw an increase in the median house price in many coastal towns along the east coast. Some areas, such as Byron Shire, experienced increases of 50-60% during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, since then, we have seen a pullback from those highs of around 20-30%.

This article from The Sydney Morning Herald clearly outlines the issue. The headline reads The NSW sea-change towns where house prices plunged 20%. If we examine the attached graph, we can easily see the trend line. The Byron Bay (2481) median price went to $3.3 million in 2022 and is now back at $2.1 million. Many recent sellers failed to read the memo on this and have been trying to list at the top of the market, to their detriment.

Days on Market

The amount of time a property is listed for is a good indication of a market’s strength. The average Days On Market (DOM) is 32 days, but we are currently seeing the average DOM up around 50-60 days. Another indicator is whether properties are selling at the advertised price or being discounted. Properties in Byron Shire are being discounted at around 2-4%.  These numbers suggest a combination of buyer caution and excessive vendor expectations.

This means it is a softer market for Byron Shire than normal. Well-priced properties in good locations are selling, but there is no FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Buyers have no urgency as they know there is enough stock and they are not about to be gazumped. Agents are reporting that enquiries and open house numbers are up, but it is too early to determine if the demand will result in price increases.

Different Ranges

There are three distinct markets in Byron Shire and the Northern Rivers. Entry-level refers to anything below $1.2 million, mid-level is between $1.2 million and $3 million, and top-end is anything above $3 million.

• Entry-level remains firm due to the housing crisis and a fundamental lack of affordable housing or reasonable rentals. The Bank of Mum and Dad is being stretched to get people into some kind of housing.
• Mid-level is the main bracket that is suffering. There is no investor market; there is no push to buy, except for the regular four D’s: Death, Divorce, Debt or Downsizing. Downsizing is challenging, as our high prices and limited availability of suitable apartments make it less attractive, and many empty nesters are opting to stay put.
• The top end is active but not overheating. We are still seeing wealthy high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) move to the area and stake a claim to blue-chip properties. The slight change is that big rural acreages are no longer at the top of the wishlist. The younger affluent buyer is more interested in being closer to the beach and not wanting to sit on a ride-on.

Gold Coast Push

Recently, I have been working on the Tweed Coast. Since the market is strong there, we are seeing demand shift from the robust Gold Coast market. The Goldie has transitioned from being a high-rise cultural catastrophe to a more livable city. This growth and demand are also affecting the Tweed Shire hinterland, as well as areas such as Casuarina, Cabarita, and Pottsville, which are experiencing stronger demand as buyers shift their attention south.

Most Expensive

National market trends are also of interest. Sydney is expected to surpass Hong Kong this year with the world’s most expensive real estate. Our five capital cities are among the top fourteen most unaffordable housing cities in the world, according to the new Demographia International Housing Affordability report. Sydney’s median house price is just shy of $1.5 million, while the Byron Bay 2481 median house price is twice that.

Community Sentiment

Currently, we are seeing an increasing debate around property supply and development. The housing crisis and lack of housing variety and options are now negatively affecting livability and productivity. Places like ours, with high residential property prices, are understandably nervous about pressure to allow more development and density. The green, leafy suburbs and beachside ambience, populated by NIMBYs, are now being challenged by the YIMBY movement to remove the white wicker fences and allow for more density.

Byron Shire will need to have this conversation at some point. Do we want to remain a refuge and exclusive enclave for the well-off and privileged? Or do we want to open ourselves up to diversity and accessible housing options? Our three-story limit is here to stay, and no one expects us to adopt high-rise living. Equally, the majority of us are not keen on wholesale urban sprawl that diminishes the rural aspect. Denser villages and master-planned communities, with walkability and active transport solutions, are the best alternative, as available in Europe. But are we ready to make the switch?

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