Market Watch – February 2026

This is an unscheduled Market Watch because, as I said, we live in interesting times. Although the market is generally stable, there are numerous uncertainties and potential headwinds. Interest rates, often a predictor of market movements, are no longer trending downward as hoped. Additionally, global instability is increasingly evident as daily news becomes more unpredictable.

First Home Buyers

Regardless, people need somewhere to live, and unsurprisingly, more people are choosing Byron and the Northern Rivers.  The first-home buyer market remains the hottest market nationwide. Partly because the federal government introduced the First Home Buyer Incentive Scheme, the entry-level market nationwide has accelerated, putting more money in sellers’ hands. It does not significantly affect the Byron Shire market, as it is capped at $800,000 in NSW. It would be an interesting brief for me to find a standalone house in Byron Shire that would be eligible for this government subsidy, but it may still be an option in other shires in the Northern Rivers.

The Bank of Mum and Dad is more of a player in the Byron Shire than the first-home buyer scheme. Depending on the statistic used, it is either the fifth- or ninth-largest lending institution in the country. Housing affordability remains a serious issue, no matter how you cut it, and this further exacerbates inequality. The federal government’s rollout of yet another incentive scheme is effectively an acknowledgment that it has no feasible short-term policy to address the housing issue.

Top End

The top-end market, exceeding $5 million, warrants closer examination. Buyers for luxury property are out there, but not as prevalent as most people think. Byron Bay is high clickbait for online scrollers, and when coupled with a minor celebrity or business leader, the sale will attract media attention. Mea Culpa, as my Hot Property articles often play into this, so I am at fault as well.

When you look at the stats and talk to listing agents, the demand for top-end is much quieter than the media suggests. Yes, there have been a few sales of over $20 million, and the pics for these make for great property porn, but these are more outliers rather than the norm. Sales in the ten-to-twenty bracket are not vibrant as there are far more sellers than buyers in this sector.

Vendors in the high-end market face two problems. Yes, agreed, having trouble selling a $10 million property is undoubtedly a first-world problem. But it may well be that selling a large luxury acreage away from the coast faces two drawbacks. Baby-boomer treechangers have now reached an age where managing and maintaining these large acreages is no longer fun. They should be selling to younger, cashed-up families, but it seems this cohort does not want to spend much time in cars ferrying kids around or on a ride-on mower. Closer to the coast or a town centre is their preference.

Middle Market

Sales in the middle market are steady and undramatic. We have seen some price growth in median-priced properties, but this growth is tempered by a strong supply of new product.

As of December 2025, Byron Bay’s median price reached $2,454,099, up 4.45% over the past 12 months. Mullumbimby recorded a median of $1,120,000, up 9.6%, and Ocean Shores sat at $1,380,000, up 9.3%. These figures indicate a market that is more resilient than that in most other regions.

The graph above shows the trend line for median house prices in Byron Bay (2481) only. The median house price has a lag and will soon show the slight uplift previously mentioned.

To Go or To Wait?

A common question for agents and property professionals is: Is now a good time to go to market, or to enter the market as a buyer?  Occasionally, it is tempting to read the tea leaves and try to predict a market trend. Looking at the chart above, the most likely outcome is that the median trend line will plateau and remain stable for a while.

However, it is generally not advisable to predict a market’s future, as there are always too many variables.  Anything could happen with interest rates, consumer sentiment or global influences. Buyers and prospective sellers are always best to follow their hearts and choose lifestyle reasons over investment or capital-gain considerations. Life is short – do what suits your soul, and the economics will usually take care of itself.