Election Wrap-Up

Last weekend’s federal election was out-of-the-box, and the final results surprised many. Mainstream voters decided to stay with a safe pair of hands in Albo and avoid the Trump-lite option on offer. This article is a breakdown of the Northern Rivers scenario, as we had our dramas, and it may be entertaining for readers to poke over the chicken gizzards.

Three electorates are in our neck of the woods: Richmond, Page, and Cowper. There were no surprises in Page and Cowper, where the incumbent National Party candidates kept their seats. All the action for us was in the Richmond electorate, where a well-known comedian, author, and local Greens candidate, Mandy Nolan, challenged the Labor incumbent, after getting close in 2022.

Battle Lines

The Labor Party knew she was a threat and threw a lot of resources at their sitting member, Justine Elliot. Some could say there was misinformation in their marketing materials, inferring that a vote for Mandy would help Peter Dutton get elected. This was a bit of a furphy as, although the contest was a three-horse race, Labor, Greens, and Nationals, there was very little chance the National Candidate would get ahead and win a seat for the conservatives. But this was a good ploy by Labor, as the anti-Dutton/Trump sentiment was decisive.

The Results

Preferential vote counting in a close three-way race is complicated and time-consuming, and still at 97% counted as this goes out.   You can see the results here at the Australian Electoral Commission website, but the final result for the three placegetters was this:

Justine Elliot, Labour: 29,527 votes or 26.31% with a swing of + 1.04%

Mandy Nolan, Greens: 25,448 or 30.52% with a swing of +1.72%

Kimberly Hone, Nationals: 24,342 or 25.17 % with a swing of +1.82%

The other candidates were the usual ragtag of right-wing minor parties, all in single digits. The highest was Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, with just over 5%. The other interesting thing is how all three major candidates could have a positive swing towards them. This is because the Liberal Democratic Party was disallowed this year as its name was too close to the Liberals. They got 10% last election, and this time, now called the Libertarian Party, they only got 1.5%. So that balance was spread over the other major candidates.

On election night, it looked like Mandy would do it. ABC election commentator Antony Green showed the big red wall of Labor seats, and for some time, that one green brick of Richmond stood out on its own by winning the primary vote. But it wasn’t to be, and Labor candidate Justine Elliot finally clinched the seat once preferences were distributed. Labor and Greens swap preferences, and Nationals put Greens last. So when preferences are distributed, it puts Labor in front.

Navel Gazing

Both the Liberals and the Greens took a hit on the night. Labor had a historic win – one for the ages. Although the Greens held their primary vote of 12%, their vote has been stuck in the 10-12% range for many years. Have they maxed out? The Greens fantasised about being the power brokers in a minority government, but they have lost seats in the lower house from four to one. Even the leader, Adam Bandt, lost his seat, leaving only Elizabeth Watson Brown in one Brisbane seat. Either way, Albanese would prefer to stick needles in his eyes than deal with the Greens, but he may have to in the Senate, where the Greens still hold seats.

Can the Liberal Party recover from this? It may take two more elections before they can be competitive. This could see the end of the climate culture wars and nuclear plants, so it’s hard to know where the Liberals will go to reclaim the centre-right position. Advocates of both parties say that a period of soul-searching and introspection is now required.

A New Green Deal?

Mandy Nolan has said she will contest the seat again in the next election.  I believe she would be a good parliamentarian regardless of which flag she flies. It would be interesting to consider whether she would have a better chance if she ran as an Independent, since the Nationals put the Greens last in their How To Vote cards. That question is too complicated and above my pay grade, so I asked Chatgpt, and it said:

To assess whether Mandy Nolan (Greens) could have won the Richmond electorate in the 2025 federal election if she had finished second and received 60% of the National Party’s preferences, let’s examine the available data and perform a hypothetical analysis.

Actual First Preference Results:

According to the Australian Electoral Commission, the first preference votes were:

• Justine Elliot (Labor): 29,547 votes (30.52%)
• Mandy Nolan (Greens): 25,486 votes (26.32%)
• Kimberly Hone (Nationals): 24,366 votes (25.17%)

The remaining votes were distributed among other minor parties and independent candidates.

Hypothetical Scenario: Mandy Nolan Finishes Second:

In this scenario, we assume that Mandy Nolan overtakes Kimberly Hone to finish second, leading to a final count between Labor and the Greens. We also assume that 60% of the National Party’s preferences flow to the Greens.

Preference Distribution Analysis:

• Total National Preferences: 24,366 votes
• 60% to Greens: 14,620 votes
• 40% to Labor: 9,746 votes

Adding these preferences to the first preference totals:

• Mandy Nolan (Greens): 25,486 + 14,620 = 40,106 votes
• Justine Elliot (Labor): 29,547 + 9,746 = 39,293 votes

Outcome:

Under this hypothetical distribution, Mandy Nolan would have secured:

• Mandy Nolan (Greens): 40,106 votes
• Justine Elliot (Labor): 39,293 votes

This suggests that if Mandy Nolan had finished second and received 60% of the National Party’s preferences, she could have won the seat by a margin of 813 votes.